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A genuine analysis: Has Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United actually improved?

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Right now, this is football’s million, or rather multi-million dollar question, given some of the figures involved in the sport.

When analysing from a results-based perspective, the season hasn’t begun too swimmingly for Erik ten Hag‘s Manchester United side. Just two wins from five in the league, with a win and a draw outside of it, leaves three wins from seven in all competitions.

Given the disaster that was last season, fans are understandably growing more impatient and want to start seeing more tangible progress given it is now Ten Hag’s third season in charge at Old Trafford.

Read More: Spurs boss Ange Postecoglou hints at potential injury blow for Man United clash

Those who remain on Ten Hag’s side of the debate point to stylistic improvements, believing that in time this will translate to results – particularly with INEOS being clear on wanting to build a world-class project at Old Trafford.

But at the end of the day questions have to be asked, have Manchester United actually improved? Perhaps more importantly, too, are they good enough?

Yes and no.

In this article, we break down the situation at Manchester United, answering all of these questions and offering a look to the future. The aim is to provide a balanced analysis, without playing the exclusive blame game on players and coaches.

Have Manchester United actually improved?

The answer is, objectively, a resounding yes. Not that last season was difficult to improve on, mind. But United are very clearly a better, stronger side in all areas compared to last season and those who continue to judge this team as last season’s team will continue to be wide of the mark in any analysis of United.

Stripping the game down to its foundations, United’s squad is technically and physically stronger across the pitch. Technically the squad is better and more capable, whilst physically the duelling qualities in the team are stronger now than last season and the players are better conditioned to play at intensity across a game, not tiring as quickly as last season (albeit the improved possession play has made games less end-to-end).

United have built play better and showcased more variation in how they move the ball, and the return of Luke Shaw should see this improve further given the advantages a natural left-sided player offers, along with his obvious top-end quality. Better adaptations do need to be made in his absence though, given how often he can be injured.

Structurally, United do look stronger too. Off the ball, they are less open than last year and in the compactness of the press is better. Some structural changes have been made on the coaching side, with defensive structure being something Ruud van Nistelrooy has a very detailed understanding of, and players understand starting positions and jump timings better now.

The addition of Matthijs de Ligt, now the leader of United’s defensive unit, has made a big difference. He is far more comfortable starting higher up the pitch compared to United’s other centre backs. When he returns from injury, Leny Yoro will further boost United at the back.

In possession, Ten Hag’s idea of how his side should play is clearer than before, and while the team is still not there, they are getting closer and improving. The demands are quite complex and have been made even more so with Ten Hag trying to accommodate the lack of a left back by increasing the number of positional rotations in the buildup phase.

United are defending better as a team and are creating better opportunities than they were previously, but they are not the finished product yet, or close.

Are United good enough?

Short answer, no.

Yes this is a project, progress has been made, there are many reasons to feel positive, et cetera. But the cold reality is that right now Manchester United are not good enough for what they should be, after everything.

Right now the team doesn’t score enough goals. Yes, they are starting to create more chances, but the ball is not hitting the back of the net enough. Goals win games, and United do not have enough of them right now.

Goals also lose games when conceded, and it is still the case that United is dropping points due to conceding goals that they really should not concede. It sometimes almost feels like we compete against ourselves to see how much sillier the goals we concede can get.

Even in the Liverpool game, the only game this season in which it has not been argued as much that United should have won, the goals conceded looked like something out of a comedy show. At the other end, United had many opportunities to threaten that were not taken due to poor execution.

An alarming number of mistakes are being made left, right, and centre, and they are costing United games. Both players and coaches have to take responsibility for these, which leads us nicely into the next section.

Is it the players or Ten Hag?

There has been widespread debate on social media since last season, with some insisting that this is a player issue and some adamant that replacing the coach is the answer to United’s issues.

Both have a major role to play, and anybody who exclusively blames one or the other will again be completely off base in any analysis of United they conduct.

Ten Hag needs to improve quickly. At the same time, many of the players have been responsible for those aforementioned mistakes, with some bigger culprits than others. Some have generally just not been good enough for reasons out of the manager’s control.

To blame Ten Hag for something like the attackers missing huge chances is generally quite ridiculous. He cannot magically make the ball hit the back of the net. The same goes for situations where the final pass is not played correctly, the wrong decision, not the one Ten Hag wants his players to make, is made in the final third, or such calamitous individual errors are made at the back. That is not his fault.

Ten Hag can be blamed for his poor in-game management, which is a weakness of his, his communication with the players, as sometimes when mistakes are repeated, it is a byproduct of him not communicating ideas well enough to the players, and how he sets the team up and adapts to his players.

To expand on the last point, in his first season, Ten Hag adapted to United’s players completely and saw success. Success would not have been sustainable this way, though. Hence, last season, he ripped up the roots and laid new foundations. This led to a lot of difficulty, with the squad mostly not ready to carry out his demands, and United had a horror show of a season.

All along, I have maintained that I believe he could and should have adapted more to the players to ease that transition process – he has instead stubbornly stuck to his principles with a few minor adaptations here and there. Still, it is understandable why he has chosen to stick to his guns all along. As for the players who are ready to execute the style, it is about building familiarity with it so that when the final pieces come into place, they are ready to go.

This season, after a few signings, improvement in the physical level of the squad, some key players returning from injuries, and the familiarity players have developed with the model, United look better. Ten Hag’s game management needs to improve, but right now, United’s players are not executing well enough on the pitch – particularly in attack – and these two together are costing United points that they otherwise should be picking up. United have missed the most big chances so far in the league, and many more opportunities could have been created if decision-making and execution were better than they are right now.

So what’s next for Ten Hag and United?

Erik ten Hag’s game model carries an inherent level of risk, which makes things even more difficult, but many basic mistakes are being made by players that can’t be put on Ten Hag. On the flip side, the risk of his game model arguably increases the potential reward.

At this moment in time, I don’t believe his position is untenable. Some will state that United are 11th, but it has been five games. Had United won even one of the three games where they’ve dropped points – two should have been wins – then they would be in 7th, and had they won both those games, they should have, then they would be joint-second on points. It is incredibly naive to look at the table at this stage when just two games could take the team from 11th place to 4th.

However, if United do not start winning games very soon then questions will have to be asked of Ten Hag and his ability to get the most out of this United team. Yes, this is a project, but this is Manchester United. Results are needed. Ten Hag was very lucky to keep his job after last season, many other managers would have been sacked but INEOS clearly believed enough in his work to allow him to continue it, and Ten Hag has to repay that now.

In the context of a project, wins are crucial to generating buy-in from all stakeholders, fans included. Things will not change overnight, and whilst his first two seasons were more difficult than they needed to be with the sporting structure at the club not in a strong condition, this season, things are being better taken care of in this department.

The style of play has improved, with patterns now consistently seen and executed better, such as the one below to open up space centrally. United are also consistently generating mini-rondo situations across the pitch and starting to dominate these more. The increase in the technical level of the squad has aided this.

But as good as it is to see progress in this area, style only counts for so much for Manchester United and Erik ten Hag. Results must come now. Personally, I believe they are close but if the necessary improvements are not made and results do not come then United will need to move on from Ten Hag. It will not magically turn the players into new footballers and win United the league, but something more would be required.

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