Why Fred will have a key role against Arsenal for Manchester United

Manchester United travel down to the Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal on Sunday, in a highly anticipated Premier League clash. United are currently on an unbeaten run of 10 games.

Most recently, The Red Devils frustratingly dropped points away to Crystal Palace on Wednesday evening. The Eagles equalised thanks to Michael Olise’s sweetly struck free kick in the dying moments of the game.

However, aside from dropping two points in South London, Erik ten Hag’s side also suffered a costly suspension; that of Casemiro. The Brazilian picked up his fifth yellow card of the season, meaning he will miss the trip to North London on Sunday.

Read More: Three midfield combinations Erik ten Hag should consider against Arsenal after Casemiro’s suspension

Whilst losing Casemiro is less than ideal, United will have to make do without the midfielder. This, however, could present centre stage to his fellow Brazilian midfielder, Fred.

The potential shape without Casemiro

There is no doubt that losing Casemiro, considered by many to be the best defensive midfielder in the world, is a massive blow for United. It is quite clear to see the impact he has on Ten Hag’s side. The entire team, function so well when the Brazilian is in the side.

United’s No.18 can often be seen sweeping up loose balls and making crucial interceptions and challenges, before progressing the ball forward quickly and effectively. He has been pivotal to the team this season, but United will not have him for arguably their biggest test under Erik ten Hag so far.

Without Casemiro, there is a big question mark over how United will set up in midfield now. Against Manchester City, with Casemiro in the team, United stuck to their usual 4-2-3-1 formation.

The midfield three against City were Casemiro, Fred and Christian Eriksen. Fred was particularly important because he was tasked with man-marking Kevin de Bruyne.

Bruno Fernandes lined up on the right-hand side, but off the ball, he operated in a more central role. This gave United more numbers in midfield and forced City to use their fullbacks more often when building up. 

United could well set up similarly on Sunday the Emirates. Alternatively, we could see Ten Hag set his side up with four midfielders, in a diamond formation, with two strikers ahead of them.

How Fred operated against Manchester City

Last Saturday, during the Manchester Derby victory over Manchester City, Fred put in an exceptional performance, especially considering the task he was given; man-marking one of the world’s best players, Kevin de Bruyne.

The Brazilian did a brilliant job to keep City’s talisman under wraps. Although he did register an assist, this was more so down to some clever play from Pep Guardiola’s side, rather than an error from Fred.

Throughout the game, Fred managed to nullify the Belgian’s impact and worked so hard to cover ground and prevent De Bruyne from having much of a say in proceedings.

Their heat maps from the game tell a story. They covered nearly the exact same area of the pitch, and it is a real testament to Fred’s relentlessness and desire to cover ground and execute Ten Hag’s plan. Everywhere De Bruyne went, Fred followed. The Brazilian simply did not let up.  

Fred played a huge part in United’s win and was able to cut off the supply to Erling Haaland thanks to his man-marking job on City’s chief creator. It was a memorable Manchester Derby performance from the midfielder.

Fred’s role against Arsenal

Fred’s role against De Bruyne on Saturday is something that Ten Hag could look to emulate when United come up against Martin Ødegaard this weekend. The Arsenal captain has been superb for the Gunners this season.

He has had a De Bruyne-like impact at Arsenal this season. This season, the Norwegian has eight goals and five assists in the Premier League, compared to De Bruyne’s three goals and 10 assists.

Ødegaard is the player who Arsenal look to when they need a create chances and make things happen on the ball. They are so similar in that sense. Even Ødegaard’s heat map in the Premier League this season is incredibly alike to De Bruyne’s from last Saturday, showing they both enjoy getting into the same areas; in the halfspace, and also playing between the lines, looking to pull the strings for their respective sides. United themselves have a playmaker like this; Bruno Fernandes.

Considering Ødegaard is arguably Arsenal’s most important player, the linchpin of everything they do going forward, United may well look to try and restrict his impact. It could be that Fred has a similar role against Arsenal to the one he played against City, looking to take away the impact of their main creator in midfield, by being his shadow all game and not giving him any room to influence the game.

Not allowing the Arsenal captain any time on the balls between the lines, where he can look to be efficient and progressive on the ball, will be vital to United’s chances of victory on Sunday. It is vital that there is great discipline when marking Ødegaard, so that he doesn’t get time and space when in possession.

It is also important to stay close to him when he doesn’t have the ball. This will make it harder for Ødegaard to make runs into space, be it to potentially create a chance for himself or to create space for his teammates to attack.

United’s Brazilian midfielder has some impressive underlying defensive numbers, especially if he fulfils a similar role on Sunday. According to FBRef, Fred ranks in the 81^st percentile for interceptions made per 90 minutes, making 1.53. He also ranks in the 99^th percentile for blocks made per 90 minutes, completing 2.09.

Having to compensate for the lack of Casemiro in midfield, plus constantly marking Ødegaard, means Fred will have to get about more in midfield. These stats, combined with his tireless running, and his performance against City, are certainly encouraging that he could produce something similar again.

In taking Arsenal’s captain out of the game, you take away one of their biggest goal threat. Ødegaard’s aforementioned 13 goals and assists in the Premier League are the joint most in his side, along with Bukayo Saka. He has also created more big chances than any other Arsenal player and makes the most key passes for them per game, also joint with Saka, averaging 2.2 per 90 minutes.

There is not much doubt that, especially considering his current form, Ødegaard is the Gunners’ most dangerous attacking player. It certainly would not be outrageous to suggest he is one of the Premier League’s best playmakers.

He is certainly someone who United must be wary of and look to try and negate his impact on the game. Fred once again can be the man to do that and produce another big performance.

Fred could have another huge impact on Sunday’s game. Should Ten Hag decide to implement a similar man-marking method on Ødegaard, then United’s number 17 will be crucial. As he showed against Manchester City, he would no doubt work tirelessly all game to try and execute the idea to perfection.

If all goes to plan, Sunday could well be another memorable game for Fred in the middle of the midfield for United.